It’s a political risk for Manchin to sign a bill that would impose minimum corporate taxes on large corporations, spend $369 billion on climate and energy, reduce prescription drug prices and open up expand the Affordable Care Act subsidies. Center’s willingness to be the bill’s top salesman – along with Democratic leaders who are deeply unpopular in red states like Manchin – makes him a likely target. spending on a GOP often sees him as an ally of this Congress.
“His party is very unpopular in West Virginia and what he’s doing right now is very unpopular,” said Senate GOP 3 leader. John Barrasso Wyoming, who is also the top Republican on the Manchin-led Energy Commission. “We’re going to focus on that chair in 2024. We’ll see what happens with promises that may have been made to Joe Manchin to agree to this.”
While the Democratic Party’s partisan law is much smaller than previously envisioned last year, it’s a bit larger than the healthcare-only package Manchin apparently pushed for just two weeks ago. Democrats see many benefits for Manchin in the bill, especially the revival of a black lung disability trust that helps care for coal miners in West Virginia.
And another integral part of Manchin’s deal with the rest of the party is his promise to enact an energy permitting law later this year, designed to make green energy and fossil fuel projects. easier to build—an idea that Barrasso calls “a lot of pie in the sky that the Democrats won’t end up supporting.”
When asked to comment on Republican fury over the deal, Manchin’s office pointed to several provisions that were particularly beneficial to his state: money for carbon-capture energy projects. ; completing the gas pipeline in the Mountain Valley; a $4 billion grant to coal communities and healthcare sectors disproportionately helping the people of West Virginia. Manchin bets that will help make the bill more popular with his voters, along with his legendary political activism in the state and a knack for retail politics.
But his state GOP colleague, Sen. Shelley Moore CapitoManchin said Manchin had done his job for him to present the return home deal: “It’s not good for the state and I think it’s very difficult to sell in the state,” she said, adding that ” he will take that into his calculations and make his own decision” about running again in 2024.
For months, Manchin was the Republican party’s best Democratic partner. He helped keep the legislative case unscathed and blocked his own party’s Build Better Back bill. He issued the warning about inflation almost as Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee Rick Scott (R-Fla.).
And Manchin’s The political position in West Virginia is very strongthat means his potential opponents sense a rare opportunity in the present moment.
“After taking a stand against some terrible bills pushed by President Biden and the left, Joe Manchin changed course and let the dam fail widely,” West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, who narrowly lost to Manchin in 2018 and could run for re-election in 2024. “I respectfully suggest that Senator Manchin change his position and vote no.”
State Treasurer Riley Moore is also seen by Republicans as a potential candidate. He is Capito’s nephew and the grandson of former Governor Arch Moore, and is leading a GOP charge against banks factoring climate change risk into their lending decisions.
Manchin himself is currently dismissing questions about 2024 – although by refusing on Sunday to pass a second term to Biden, he was in a position that could help his status. As for the party deal with Schumer, Manchin said, “this is not about politics.” He has repeatedly said that the party’s energy, tax and healthcare bill is not Republican or Democrat, but “an American bill” instead.
“I think it’s absolutely necessary for our country,” Manchin said on Monday. “So does it affect me politically? I didn’t look at it that way and I still don’t. “
Manchin struggles to run for re-election in 2018, frustrated by the erratic pace of the Senate and the Republican leader’s leadership style Mitch McConnell. According to his colleagues, he has not made a decision on what to do in 2024 and has refused to answer direct questions about his political future in recent weeks.
“For Republicans, we’re getting redder, and the Biden administration is doubling down on some of the things of the Obama administration that are tied to Democrats,” Capito said. “Any Democrat has a hard time.”
The three red state senators who must be re-elected in 2024 are integral to the Democratic majority: Manchin, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana. They all represent states that have only added Republicans in the last few election cycles, which has kept Democrats in their seats and created space in the caucus for unconventional brands of ideologies. surname.
And Manchin came from perhaps the most difficult position for Democrats of anyone in the caucus, which is why he was so deliberate in favoring a party line deal with Schumer. It’s clear that Democrats want him to run for the Senate rather than retire, run for governor, or pursue something like an independent presidential run.
There is almost certainly no one else who can compete in a Senate race in the state, let alone win.
“I want him in” for re-election, Sen said. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “But trying to predict what Joe Manchin will do? … He’s an energetic, healthy guy and playing a healthy role. “
Marianne LeVine contributed to this report.