May need a robust storm within the DC space this afternoon

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12:20 pm – Early showers bloom and storms have arrived

Several showers and storms have developed ahead of schedule and are rapidly moving into the 15th Street corridor (Leesburg to Warrenton). They’re generally not severe so some downpours and possibly some thunder are expected mainly with this activity as it sweeps east for the next 60 to 90 minutes. However, activity can increase a bit – especially after crossing Interstate 95 around 1pm

This operation can use some of the available energy of the atmosphere, reducing the possibility of additional storms later on.

We will reassess the storm threat late afternoon after these storms pass.

Original article from late morning

Wet air is spreading across the Washington region, replacing the low humidity we enjoyed on July 4. The arrival of this warm, moist air sets the stage for thunderstorms that can be intense. strong from Tuesday afternoon to early evening.

National Weather Service Hurricane Center booked the area is in a Category 2 out of 5 risk zone for severe stormsnote the possibility of “strong gusts” and “isolated heavy hail”.

Any storms affecting this area should move through quickly, reducing the risk of flooding. However, some areas that were locked down on Saturday night (i.e. saturated land in the northern part of the County and south of Montgomery and the counties north of Prince George) could face rising water again. high if a big storm passes.

How torrential rains split the County and its northern suburbs on Saturday night

Short-range computer models show the best chance for hurricanes is between 3 and 6 p.m., with rainfall sweeping west to east.

At the end of the morning, Showers and storms have appeared from the Ohio Valley to West Virginia and is generally pushing east-southeast in the general direction of the Washington area.

Storm time: While subject to change, hurricanes will arrive and exit the following areas under the following windows:

  • Interstate 81 (Hagerstown to Front Royal): 2 to 4 pm
  • Route 15 (Frederick to Leesburg to Warrenton): 2:45 to 4:45pm
  • Interstate 95 (Baltimore to DC to Fredericksburg): 3:30 to 5:30 p.m.
  • Route 301 (Bowie to La Plata): 4:15 to 6:15pm

The storm moves quickly, lasting in any area for about 30 to 45 minutes. Note that some scattered showers and storms may occur after the first wave but will decrease in scope and intensity after dark.

Storm Insurance: Scattered – any individual area has about a 60% chance of being able to measure rain.

  • Likely: Torrential rain, lightning, strong gusts of wind (up to 30-40 mph)
  • Possible: Strong winds (up to 60-70 mph), light hail
  • Very small chance: Massive hail, flooding, tornado

Rain potential: In stormy areas, 0.25 to 0.5 inches is more likely, with total isolation up to 1 to 2 inches.

The possible severe weather setup today has a warm front moving through the area (as shown in the map below), opening up a wetter air mass in the presence of southeasterly winds. Additionally, a higher-level disturbance in the jet stream will move into the Mid-Atlantic from the Ohio Valley.

That disturbance caused scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Virginia, and these rains are likely to continue to a degree of cloud cover around the DC area through early and mid-afternoon. .

The severity of the storm will depend on how unstable the atmosphere is over the next few hours. Any continuous fracturing of the clouds will allow the sun to increase the surface temperature, which is key to instability.

Picturesque weather for a spectacular fireworks display in Washington

There is enough wind shear (increasing wind speed with altitude) to help the storm cells become stronger, if they bloom, and organize the cells into clusters and curves.

The set of high-resolution models all show the onset of storms in the Blue Ridge fairly early (1 to 2 p.m.), with those storms then sweeping over meteors as early as mid-to-late afternoon.

As the simulated radar fields below show, the line moves through the DC region. Warm frontal boundaries can help organize and strengthen this complex.

With these fast-moving complexes, there is the potential for a strong wind gust – and that could be the biggest severe weather risk this afternoon and early evening.

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