Padres to get Josh Hader

In a stunning blockbuster, Padres agreed to get the All-Star closer Josh Hader from the Brewers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported just minutes ago that the Brewers had finalized a deal with Hader.

The Padres are drawing closer, Taylor Rogerslet Milwaukee back to the deal, Passan further tweet. Milwaukee will also get the right Dinelson Lametpitch advertising Robert Gasser and potential customers Esteury Ruiz.

That’s a huge profit for the Padres, and while it’s surprising to see Milwaukee come closer to holding a three-game lead at National League Central, the rationale behind the move is pretty simple. Hader’s $11 million salary figure will rise north of $15 million next season in his final year in charge of the club, and the budget-conscious Brewers in general may not willing to spend $15-17 million on a painkiller when that represents such a remarkable portion of the overall payroll.

Of course, the Brewers could have kept Hader over the winter and made him ready by then, but the allure of landing Hader for multiple post-season boosts undeniably allows them to search a higher price now. To that end, they’re getting a more high-profile movie of their own in Rogers, who – like Hader – has struggled with late times but has a stellar track record spanning multiple seasons. Milwaukee also added a high-octane arm in Lamet, though one injured arm through trauma, and two of Padres’ top ten prospects in Gasser and Ruiz, give some much-needed life. for a farm system that is not considered particularly robust.

It’s the kind of trade we’re used to seeing smaller-paying clubs like the Rays and Guardians make regularly: cash equals the transaction value of a coveted player when he has several seasons. The league takes control of the club and at the same time fills that spot on the roster with the other big leagues helping out. It was an immediate downgrade on the overall listings, but this kind of simultaneous buying and selling action has been one of the keys to Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and even Milwaukee itself remaining competitive. competitive though rarely able to spend top market money.

Hader, 28, is sitting in the worst ERA of 4.24 of his career, although that mark was inflated by an unusually turbulent pairing earlier this month in which he was tagged for an incredible nine runs earned in a third of the round. Aside from that disastrous match, Hader had a 1.87 ERA in 33 2/3 innings. He’s not even allowed to run this season until June 7 and has taken down 41.8% of opponents compared to an 8.5% walk rate.

Since Hader’s 2017 debut, no one in baseball has hit his massive 44.1% hit rate – and they haven’t been particularly close to that either. (Craig Kimbrel ranked second with 40.6%.) Hader’s ERA of 2.48 at the time was the best eight of the 309 qualified pain relievers, and no one yet topped the 19.5% swing rate. his.

The name that follows Hader in that giant swing role – former teammate now Devin Williams – can also be related to today’s trading. The Brewers certainly wouldn’t be comfortable moving Hader without Williams’ own breakthrough as one of the sport’s most dominant relief pitchers. Armed with a lethal alter (nicknamed “airbending”), Williams ranks fourth in strike rate (39.9%), second in strike rate (18.6%) and second in ERA (1.94) of which the same subclass of qualified analgesics was just mentioned in relation to Hader.

There’s certainly an argument to be made that Milwaukee should have kept Hader simple and destroyed that dominant duo for the rest of the season and the upcoming playoffs, but a mix of those in form high, immediate (Rogers, Lamet) and long-term replacements -the recurring value of adding a new pair of high-profile leads to the system proved too tempting for the president of baseball operations David Stearns, GM Matt Arnold and the rest of the Milwaukee staff.

Moving on to a collection of newly acquired talent, the Brewers will no doubt be hoping that Rogers can shake off the recent slump that has plagued him over the past two months. Rogers, from 2018-21 with the Twins, is not far behind Hader on the sport’s list of best lefties. He worked 197 2/3 frames in that time, pitching a 2.91 ERA with a 31.2% hit rate, 4.9% walk rate and 50 saves. However, a torn tendon on his pitching hand was cut last season for Rogers, and he was transferred from the Twins to San Diego the night before Opening Day.

Rogers approached his new environment brilliantly, winning a dominating 0.44 ERA on a K/BB 23 out of 4 of his first 20 innings of 1/3. Since that time, however, he has been dressed for ERA 8.14 in a near-identical pattern of 21 innings. However, Rogers still had a 25 to 5 K/BB edge over that ugly stretch, and he was only allowed to run once home along the way. He is hampered by a towering .429 average when playing in this slump, but it’s hard to ignore a stretch that has seen Rogers surrender running 13 of his 22 appearances. his former.

Still, Rogers’ track record is fascinating, and perhaps the Brewers have their own ideas on how lefties can get back on track. He was a free agent at the end of the season, making Rogers a pure renter – but he was an extremely affordable man, as the Twins paid all but $700k of his salary. him in the aforementioned deal for the Padres.

Lamet, meanwhile, is another big arm the Brewers are buying low. The flamethrower was a candidate for Cy Young in the shortened 2020 season but suffered a biceps injury towards the end of the 2020 season and missed a significant portion of the 2021 season due to a series of leg injuries. hand.

Lamet has delivered 13 wins in just 12 innings of 1/3 of the main league this season, but he is dominating in Triple-A (0.77 ERA in 11 2/3 frames). His fast ball, which averaged 97 mph in 2020, dropped to an average of 95.3 mph this year. There are obviously a lot of red flags with Lamet, but if he can get back to anything like his 2020 form (2.09 ERA, 34.8% hit rate, 7 walk rate). .5%) while stepping out of the Milwaukee cowshed, he will be a formidable addition to the relief team both this year and next, as he’s eligible to referee again before the agency frees himself. due to the 2023-24 season.

Both Gasser and Ruiz are among the Padres’ top 10 prospects and will now also join Brewers’ Advanced Class-A Affiliates top 10 this season. In 90 1/3 innings, he scored a 4.18 ERA but a much more impressive 3.27 FIP, thanks in large part to his fussy 30.5% hit rate and 7.4% walk rate. Interestingly, Gasser doesn’t rely on speed to find success but rather on command and ability to clear the ball. Baseball America scores his fast ball in the 90-93 mph range and calls Gasser a high-probability fourth starter – someone who can move quickly past minors. He could be an option in Milwaukee towards the end of the 2023 season and certainly into the 2024 campaign.

Ruiz, meanwhile, is an immediate pick for the central Brewers. He made his major league debut, and while he was only 6-27 in his first few games, he wiped out a Double-A throw (.344 / .474 / .611 in 232 appearances) and opposing Triple-A so far in 2022 (.315/.457/.477 in 142 plate appearances). Ruiz, amazingly, has stolen 60 bases in just 77 minor games this season and has picked up the first of several sizable steals in the league. Adds average raw strength or better, and it’s easy to see why Milwaukee is smitten with him – especially when the team needs to be in the center.

Ruiz is not a true centre-back and only moved to the outfield full-time last season after struggling in midfield, but BA’s scouting report on him notes that he has done Good jumps and routes as he learns the center field on the court. flies. Offensive was an issue for Ruiz earlier in his career, but he’s beaten by just 17.4% of minor clips so far this season and has made some Changes to approach and rotation have improved based on his hitting ability. .

Of course, it’s not common to see a lead team engaging with one of the game’s best players in his position, but the whole gambit for the Brewers is a reverse game that can give them productions. equivalent amount in 2022 and significant long-term value thereafter.

For the Padres, it was a pure short-term game with the goal of assembling a strong post-season pitching staff. It’s also certainly not the only move that San Diego baseball executive president AJ Preller will make between now and tomorrow’s deadline. He’s managed to add Hader without giving up any of the organization’s top leads – eg Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, Jackson Merrill, James Wood, Luis Campusano – all possible used as firepower to deliver a sizable pitch or peripheral upgrade (e.g. Frankie Montas, Juan Soto).

It’s worth reiterating that the Hader acquisition has the potential to get Padres past the luxury tax barrier, even if Lamet’s salary goes back to Milwaukee. That, however, only serves as a further impetus to significant deals from Preller & Co. In all likelihood, the Padres is just getting started, and we shouldn’t expect this to be the only move of note for the Brewers.

Leave a Comment